A truce in Russia’s three-year conflict with Ukraine depends on Moscow agreeing to a 30-day halt in hostilities proposed by the United States. This break would serve as a confidence-building step, allowing both parties to work towards a more comprehensive long-term peace agreement.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has cautioned that Russian President Vladimir Putin may seek to prolong a potential short-term truce under stipulations designed to sidetrack the peace negotiations and extend the conflict. Under pressure from the United States, where President Donald Trump halted military assistance and intelligence collaboration, Ukraine anticipates that further sanctions against Moscow might be threatened to compel Putin to agree to these provisions.
When he announced his plan to meet with Putin on Tuesday, Trump mentioned that discussions about territories and energy facilities would be included in efforts to end the conflict. He characterized this division of resources as "allocating specific assets."
However, past the short-term truce, neither side appears ready to grant significant compromises to the other, and each has boundaries that they adamantly refuse to let be breached.
An examination of the problems:
What are Russia's demands?
When Putin launched its full-scale invasion on Feb. 24, 2022, he demanded that Ukraine renounce joining NATO, sharply cut its army, and protect Russian language and culture to keep the country in Moscow's orbit.
Currently, he is insisting that Kyiv remove its troops from the four areas that Moscow unlawfully seized in September 2022 but failed to completely control — Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson.
Russian authorities have stated that any peace agreement must include the release of Russian assets seized in the West and the removal of various U.S. and European Union sanctions. In response, the Trump administration suggested considering potential sanctions relief as part of the negotiations.
In addition, Putin has consistently stressed the importance of addressing "the underlying reasons for the crisis." This statement alludes to the Kremlin’s call for reducing NATO's military expansion close to Russia’s frontiers, which Moscow views as a significant danger to its safety.
He contends that Zelenskyy, who completed his term recently, does not have the authority to negotiate a peace agreement. Kyiv insists that conducting elections during wartime is unfeasible. Trump has supported this idea by suggesting that Ukraine should organize an election, aligning with Putin’s stance.
Russian authorities have stated that they will not tolerate the presence of soldiers from any NATO countries serving as peacekeepers to oversee a potential ceasefire.
What are Ukraine's demands?
Encountering obstacles across the 1,000-kilometer (620-mile) battlefront, Ukraine has shifted its stance on restoring its state boundaries to their pre-2014 positions due to lacking the necessary military strength. Instead, Ukraine now seeks a peace agreement fortified with security assurances from global partners aimed at preventing future Russian invasions.
Instead of pursuing NATO membership—a longstanding aspiration for Kyiv that seems highly unlikely without American support—details about these security assurances are emerging through separate discussions spearheaded by France and Britain. The concept involves a “coalition of the willing” with plans for European forces to be deployed and a robust military reaction should Russia initiate another offensive.
Zelenskyy has emphasized the need to reinforce Ukraine’s military to resist potential future attacks from Russia, an expensive undertaking that necessitates prompt and steady backing from global partners. Additionally, he seeks a cache of armaments potent enough to inflict significant harm on Russian resources. Furthermore, Kyiv aims to enhance its indigenous defense manufacturing sector to reduce dependency on foreign aid—a situation that has hindered Ukrainian troops during much of the conflict.
Ukraine also has crucial requests from Russia. Kyiv is unwilling to surrender additional territories to Moscow, particularly in the areas that are partly under occupation. Additionally, Ukraine is calling for the return of children who have been forcibly relocated to Russia and for the release of thousands of civilians held in Russian jails.
Concessions and red lines
Each side has redlines that cannot coexist, which makes negotiations incredibly difficult. The United States insists that both parties must agree to compromises. The future status of approximately one-fifth of Ukrainian territory currently occupied by Russia will probably be at the heart of discussions.
Regarding Moscow, having NATO-member countries serve as peacekeepers or a stabilizing force outside the alliance structure constitutes a non-negotiable boundary. However, Moscow has not specified any particular demands or compromises regarding this issue.
For Ukraine, which finds itself in a more vulnerable situation, the issue of territories occupied by Russia becomes crucial as they lack the military capability to reclaim them. This matter represents both a non-negotiable boundary for Kyiv and a possible area of compromise.
Zelenskyy has stated that Ukraine will never acknowledge the region as part of Russia. However, Ukrainian officials admit that although this stance remains unchanged officially, the occupied areas are probably going to stay under Russian control for an extended period.
“Partners understand our boundaries—specifically, that we do not acknowledge the annexed regions as part of the Russian Federation,” Zelenskyy said to reporters lately. “This reflects both my presidential stance and the collective will of our citizens. Such recognition would contravene international law and the Ukrainian constitution.”
Ukraine similarly dismisses limitations on the scale and capacities of its military, along with constraints on its potential membership in international coalitions like NATO and the European Union.